Example Image
Civitas Outlook
Topic
Politics
Published on
Feb 6, 2025
Contributors
James Gimpel
Daron Shaw
Image: the migration from California to Texas generated by ChatGPT (Open AI, 02/06/2025)

Long Distance Migration as a Two-Step Sorting Process: The Resettlement of Californians in Texas

Contributors
James Gimpel
James Gimpel
James Gimpel
Daron Shaw
Daron Shaw
Senior Fellow
Daron Shaw
Summary
Here we press the question of whether the well-documented stream of migrants relocating from California to Texas has been sufficient to alter the political complexion of the destination state.
Summary
Here we press the question of whether the well-documented stream of migrants relocating from California to Texas has been sufficient to alter the political complexion of the destination state.
Listen to this article

Prominent historical examples point to how population surges from elsewhere have contributed to the social and political reconstitution of local electorates. Population mobility internal to the United States varies over time and across states but has always been impressive enough in volume to raise the curiosity of observers about its political effects. Here we press the question of whether the well-documented stream of migrants relocating from California to Texas has been sufficient to alter the political complexion of the destination state. Including migrants from Florida proves to be an illuminating contrast, showing that the California influx is indeed large, but politically quite mixed. We find that the aggregate effect of this flow on the partisan balance of Texas has been minimal in the short-term. Local effects on the counties and smaller localities in Texas are more noticeable, however, as cross-state migrants are highly selective in their relocation decisions, gravitating toward destinations consonant with their political values.

Read the Full Paper

This paper was originally published by Political Behavior

Continue Reading and Download PDF
10:13
1x
10:13
More articles

American Immortals

Politics
Feb 27, 2026

The False Equivalence of Multicultural Day

Pursuit of Happiness
Feb 26, 2026
View all

Join the newsletter

Receive new publications, news, and updates from the Civitas Institute.

Sign up
More on

Politics

National Civitas Institute Poll: Americans are Anxious and Frustrated, Creating a Challenging Environment for Leaders

The poll reveals a deeply pessimistic American electorate, with a majority convinced the nation is on the wrong track.

Politics
Feb 19, 2026
Liberal Democracy Reexamined: Leo Strauss on Alexis de Tocqueville

This article explores Leo Strauss’s thoughts on Alexis de Tocqueville in his 1954 “Natural Right” course transcript.

Raúl Rodríguez
Politics
Feb 25, 2025
Who's That Knocking? A Study of the Strategic Choices Facing Large-Scale Grassroots Canvassing Efforts

Although there is a consensus that personalized forms of campaign outreach are more likely to be effective at either mobilizing or even persuading voters, there remains uncertainty about how campaigns should implement get-out-the-vote (GOTV) programs, especially at a truly expansive scale.

Grant Ferguson, James Gimpel, Mark Owens, Daron Shaw
Politics
Dec 13, 2024
National Poll from Civitas Institute: Trump Victory Driven by Voters Who Reject Status Quo

The poll asked 1,200 Americans an array of questions about how things are going in America.

Daron Shaw
Politics
Dec 11, 2024

The Three Whiskey Happy Hour

Steven Hayward brings you the Power Line Blog's perspective on the week's big headlines.

View all
** items
There's a Perception Gap With the U.S. Economy

As we approach another election cycle, it’s worth asking: what’s real, what’s political theater, and what does it all mean if Democrats regain control of the House?

Charity-Joy Acchiardo & G. Dirk Mateer
Politics
Feb 2, 2026
International Law Is Holding Democracies Back

The United States should use this moment to argue for a different approach to the rules of war.

Politics
Jan 25, 2026
Trump purged America’s Leftist toxins. Now hubris will be his downfall

From ending DEI madness and net zero to securing the border, he’ll leave the US stronger. But his excesses are inciting a Left-wing backlash

Politics
Jan 24, 2026
California’s wealth tax tests the limits of progressive politics

Until the country finds a way to convince the average American that extreme wealth does not come at their expense, both the oligarchs and the heavily Democratic professional classes risk experiencing serious tax raids unseen for decades.

Politics
Jan 20, 2026

John Yoo urges Supreme Court to ‘let democracy work’ in trans athlete case

Politics
Jan 13, 2026
1:05

Kotkin: Non-Aligned Nations Navigating a Multipolar World

Politics
Aug 19, 2025
1:05

Wall Street Journal: Donald Trump Takes On the Conservative Judiciary

Politics
Jun 2, 2025
1:05

Trump’s Drug Pricing Plan: Consequences for Innovation and Patient Access

Politics
May 13, 2025
1:05

John Yoo: The DOJ Is Being ‘Tricky’ but They May Be Right

Politics
Mar 18, 2025
1:05
No items found.
No items found.
American Immortals

Unlike other abolitionists, though, Douglass never lost his faith in the American Founding. Indeed, he believed that the fundamental premises of our republic were the very principles that could save her from this moral crisis.

Michael Lucchese
Politics
Feb 27, 2026
When Duvall Played Stalin

It’s strange to compliment an actor for impersonating a tyrant, but it is an act of courage.

Titus Techera
Politics
Feb 20, 2026
When Vanity Leads to Impropriety

A president should simply not be allowed to name anything after himself without checks from Congress or an independent commission.

Richard Epstein
Politics
Feb 19, 2026
Retracing a Catastrophe: Lessons from Solzhenitsyn’s The Red Wheel

As Ideology has continued to exist in transmogrified forms after its Marxist-Leninist version, Solzhenitsyn remains a sure guide into its dark labyrinths.

Paul Seaton
Politics
Feb 19, 2026
No items found.