Civitas Outlook
Topic
Economic Dynamism
Published on
July 24, 2025
Contributors
Carola Binder

Why the Damage to Fed Independence May Have Already Been Done

From Bloomberg's Odd Lots Podcast:

There’s a long history of US presidents putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the techniques have often been subtle or quiet in some way. Under President Trump, attacks on the Fed have risen to a whole new level. And it’s not just Trump that’s called on Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates. Other members of his administration (along with allies in Congress) have been hammering him both on policy and also topics unrelated to monetary policy, such as the cost of renovating the Federal Reserve building in Washington.

Investors are taking seriously the prospect that Trump will find a way or a reason to remove Powell before the end of his term next year. And regardless of when Powell is replaced, there’s a widespread anticipation that the next Fed chair will be someone more closely resembling a Trump loyalist. So do we still have an independent Fed at this point?

On this episode, we speak with University of Texas-Austin economics professor Carola Binder about why central bank independence is so cherished by economists, why mere criticism of the Fed could be inflationary, and whether Fed independence has been permanently damaged.

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Economic Dynamism

The Causal Effect of News on Inflation Expectations

This paper studies the response of household inflation expectations to television news coverage of inflation.

Carola Binder, Pascal Frank, Jane M. Ryngaert
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The Rise of Inflation Targeting

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Joel Kotkin, Marshall Toplansky
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Automated Detection of Emotion in Central Bank Communication: A Warning

Can LLMs help us better understand the role of emotion in central bank communication?

Carola Binder, Nicole Baerg
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The Housing Crisis

Soaring housing costs are driving young people towards socialism—only dispersed development and expanded property ownership can preserve liberal democracy.

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Economic Dynamism
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America’s great migration

The young and ambitious are fleeing the stagnant coastal states for the booming heartland.

Economic Dynamism
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1:05

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Expanding deposit insurance will only exacerbate financial risk and regulatory dependence, imposing costs on banks, their customers, and taxpayers. 

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Even the most powerful computers on earth have no idea how much energy America will need for the next generation. What, then, is the path forward?

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Twenty years ago, energy discourse was awash in buzzwords and concepts such as "smart grid" and "hydrogen highway." These ideas now seem as quaint and obsolete as rotary dial telephones.

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Oil Remains the Epicenter of Commerce, Geopolitics, and Energy

The question for framing next generation energy policies distills to knowing whether there are any truly new means for meeting society’s energy needs.

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Economic Dynamism
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