AI and the Future of Society and Economy
Large language and generative AI models like ChatGPT are the equivalent of the first automobiles: fun to play with, somewhat unreliable, and maybe a little dangerous. But over time, the lesson for will be clear: Who Learns Fastest, Wins.
Section One: AI and the Evolution of Business
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is perhaps the most widely discussed new technology in history.Forecasts of its future range from imminent societal collapse to the spawning of a new paradigm for economic organisation. Some two-thirds of Americans fear its rise and roughly threein five, according to a 2023 poll, see it as a direct threat to civilisation (Edwards, 20231; Tong,20232). World Economic Forum chairman Klaus Schwab warns about humans losing control ofthe world during the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Newcomb, 20233).
The business appeal of AI is obvious. AI is about improving the accuracy of decision-making byharnessing past experience to predict the future. It is not about creating new sentient, infallible life forms like “Ultron” from Marvel Comics or “Lt. Commander Data” from Star Trek. It isabout eliminating mankind’s natural stupidity that comes from making the same mistakes overand over again without learning from the past. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) estimated AItechnologies would add US$15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. McKinsey & Companyestimates generative AI alone will add US$4.4 trillion annually to the global economy (Chui etal., 20234; Goldman, 20235; PwC, 20176).
Entrepreneurs and innovators may seek to disrupt existing order, but most businesses are builtaround optimising existing systems. Build the same thing cheaper so you make more moneythan your competitors. Define target audiences more precisely so you can reach them moreefficiently and effectively. Identify friction points in processes so you can smooth them out andmake things happen faster and more easily. This is the ongoing struggle of businesses andmarkets since the beginning of capitalism.
Read the Full Report
This report was originally published by Chapman University's Center for Demographics and Policy. Read it in full here.
Economic Dynamism
The Price of Stagnation: Britain’s Retreat from Dynamism
We face a basic issue: we do not let cities or communities grow or die.
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London and the Architecture of Creative Growth
Preserving London's creative dynamism will require humility from policymakers and a commitment to keeping the city liveable.
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Locke, Meet Claude
The concern is not regulation per se. It is a regulation that outruns its justification by arriving before the evidence, foreclosing the technology before its benefits are understood, and insulating the powerful from competition that would otherwise discipline them. That is the pattern worth resisting.
Is There Anything New Under the AI Sun?
OpenAI needs to build on the successes of open markets and turn away from regulation, taxation, and cartelization.
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