Trump’s Iran Ceasefire Depends on American Oil
Trump has found his own formula — based largely on America’s tech savvy and energy abundance — to intimidate enemies and control friends.
One might not easily associate Donald Trump with Otto von Bismarck. Yet like the Iron Chancellor, who was famous for embracing the realpolitik of “blood and steel” in forging the German Empire, Trump has found his own formula — based largely on America’s tech savvy and energy abundance — to intimidate enemies and control friends.
The US President last night announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire after a 12-day war, though Israel has this morning accused Tehran of immediately violating the order. As the conflict threatens to restart already, energy policy could prove a critical determining factor.
Suggestions from the Iranian government that it would close the pivotal Strait of Hormuz clearly haven’t deterred Washington. Threats to shut down oil production would previously have terrified an America which just two decades ago was the world’s largest importer of oil. Now, the picture is very different. Largely thanks to fracking, America is the number-one producer of oil and gas globally, most of it produced in Trump-friendly states such as Texas. The Permian basin, located in the arid wastes of the western reaches of the Lone Star State, now constitutes the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, and is soon expected to be responsible for half of all US output. Other areas such as Pennsylvania, with its expansive fracking economy, also seem likely to benefit.
Politics
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Liberal Democracy Reexamined: Leo Strauss on Alexis de Tocqueville
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Long Distance Migration as a Two-Step Sorting Process: The Resettlement of Californians in Texas
Here we press the question of whether the well-documented stream of migrants relocating from California to Texas has been sufficient to alter the political complexion of the destination state.
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Although there is a consensus that personalized forms of campaign outreach are more likely to be effective at either mobilizing or even persuading voters, there remains uncertainty about how campaigns should implement get-out-the-vote (GOTV) programs, especially at a truly expansive scale.
There's a Perception Gap With the U.S. Economy
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International Law Is Holding Democracies Back
The United States should use this moment to argue for a different approach to the rules of war.
Trump purged America’s Leftist toxins. Now hubris will be his downfall
From ending DEI madness and net zero to securing the border, he’ll leave the US stronger. But his excesses are inciting a Left-wing backlash
California’s wealth tax tests the limits of progressive politics
Until the country finds a way to convince the average American that extreme wealth does not come at their expense, both the oligarchs and the heavily Democratic professional classes risk experiencing serious tax raids unseen for decades.
The Venezuela Symposium
Eight Latin American contributors discuss Venezuela's future and its wider consequences for the region.
Venezuela Post-Maduro
Indeed, for many, the Venezuelan situation seemed to have no other way out, since everything had already been tried without success. It was about time.
