Trump's Endgame
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America’s institutions could be inexorably reshaped by Trump 2.0.
What lies ahead now that Americans have just witnessed one of the most dramatic trade gambits seen at the beginning of a presidential term? By most accounts, Trump is doing exactly what he promised during the campaign and has encountered little resistance to his plans. Republicans are giddy, and Democrats are in disarray. But will things stay that way? Unlikely. Trump’s second honeymoon will eventually fade, and the focus will turn to what happens in 2028. Trump recently demonstrated that he understands his current actions are part of a sequential game with the Democrats when he said, “They’re not just after me, they’re after you – I’m just standing in their way.”
Trump and his cabinet have meticulously planned his fast and furious opening moves. Such organization suggests that Trump has scripted his next set of moves and thought about the endgame as well. Let’s begin by using backward induction to unlock the motivations of Trump’s sequential game plan that ends with the 2028 election results. There are three possible final scenarios: Trump builds a strong populist coalition, and Republicans keep control; Trump’s plans fail, and the Democrats return to power; or the election is a toss-up.
Trump 2.0 understands what is at stake in 2028. If the Democrats regain power, they may immediately jail him and his family and liquidate his businesses. If you believe these things are likely, and you’ve been put through a personal hell by your adversaries, why would you willingly hand power back to them? He won’t. He has 47 months to rebuild the federal government in his image. He will double down and do everything in his power to help the Republican Party stay in power and build a lasting coalition. Achieving this end also guarantees that his legacy is secure.
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